Economy News

Wall Street's worst quarter since 2022 ends with a 1,125-point Dow rally on hopes of peace

US stocks ended March with their best day since May, but it could not save the quarter. On Tuesday 31 March the Dow rose 1,125 points (2.49%), the S&P 500 2.9% and the Nasdaq 3.8%, CNN reports, after reports that the Trump administration might soon end the war with Iran and state media confirmed that President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran was ready to end it in exchange for security guarantees.

The month was still brutal. CNN says the Dow fell 8% in March, its worst month since September 2022; the S&P 500 lost 5.1% in March and 7.33% in the first quarter, its worst quarter since June 2022, and the Nasdaq fell 7% for the quarter. Brent crude rose almost 50% in March and was still above $100 with the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut.

The low point came on 26 March. AP reports the S&P 500 fell 1.7% to 6,477.16, 7.2% below its record, while the Nasdaq dropped 2.4% to 21,408.08, more than 10% below its high: a “correction”. Meta lost 8% and Nvidia 4.2%; South Korea's Kospi fell 3.2%. Iran had just rejected a US ceasefire proposal delivered through Pakistan.

“All eyes will remain on the price of oil and news out of the Middle East” — Jay Woods, Freedom Capital Markets, via CNN

How each outlet framed it

• CNN — the scorecard: the month and quarter in numbers, “extreme fear” on its Fear and Greed Index, and a relief rally.
• AP — the trough: Iran's denial of direct talks, a possible toll system for tankers in Hormuz, and a 10-year yield of 4.43%.

What we don't know yet: whether the peace signals hold. CNN notes the reported plan to end the war did not include a resolution in the Strait of Hormuz.