Economy News
Oil barely moves after Maduro's capture, but Venezuelan bonds jump as much as 20%
Oil markets took the US capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro calmly on Monday 5 January. In Asian morning trade, RTHK reported, Brent fell 0.21% to $60.62 a barrel and WTI 0.35% to $57.12, with a supply surplus still weighing on prices. By the US afternoon the move had flipped: Dawn says Brent rose 96 cents to $61.71 and WTI 95 cents to $58.27 after both had dropped more than $1 earlier in a choppy session.
The bigger move was in debt. Venezuelan government and PDVSA bonds, in default since 2017, jumped as much as 8.5 cents on the dollar, roughly 20%, Dawn reports. Semafor says Chevron and Exxon shares surged in pre-market trading, noting Chevron is the only major US oil company operating in Venezuela.
US President Donald Trump said the United States will now “run” Venezuela and send American companies to repair its oil infrastructure, according to RTHK.
How each outlet framed it
- RTHK — the Asian open: a small dip, and analysts warning that raising output will be neither easy nor quick.
- Dawn — the trading day as a whole: a rebound in crude, a bond rally and sanctioned tankers leaving Venezuelan waters in “dark mode”.
- Semafor — the corporate winners: US oil majors, and ING's warning of “downside risks” to its 2027 oil price forecast.
Where the numbers differ: RTHK puts Venezuelan output at about 1 million barrels a day, down from roughly 3.5 million in 1999; Semafor says about 800,000 barrels a day, roughly 5% of US production. Both agree the country holds the world's largest known reserves.
What we don't know yet: how fast production could recover. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo told AFP that any recovery would require substantial investment given the crumbling infrastructure.